Patchwork Earth: navigating pathways to just, thriving, and sustainable futures

Different regions, with different contexts and values, will follow sustainability transformation pathways, giving rise to tensions opportunities as the outcomes of regional pathways interact. To navigate these changes, we need a better understanding how interact produce for people nature. Creating sustainable just future require major shift in humans live in, with, Earth system one another.1Leach M. Reyers B. Bai X. Brondizio E.S. Cook C. Díaz S. Espindola G. Scobie Stafford-Smith Subramanian S.M. Equity Anthropocene: social–ecological systems perspective on their intertwined futures.Global Sustainability. 2018; 1: e13Crossref Scopus (93) Google Scholar But this could take place, it follow, its ultimate remain vague. Further, visions futures differ widely. For example, some Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios suggested that should first concentrate building strong, community-based stewardship move toward more future. Other implied pathway best be found through attempts achieve technologically driven, eco-efficient planet.2Bennett E.M. Solan Biggs R. MacPhearson T. Norstrom A. Olsson P. Pereira L. Peterson G.D. Raudsepp-Hearne Beirmann F. et al.Bright spots: seeds good Anthropocene.Front. Ecol. Environ. 2016; 14: 441-448Crossref (217) In fact, many combinations specific changes diet, social trade policy, energy technology, ecological practices are possible parts sustainability. And although (or others) or even intermingled might equally globally agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals, each alternative implies other such racial justice, gender relationships, societal equitability, well sets winners losers. Envisioning desirable is critical step creating futures: cannot work what envision. Yet there no “one-size-fits-all” approach; regions contexts, prioritizations likely result variety outcomes. These can interact, both opportunities. Navigating tensions, while respecting planetary limits context sensitivity, central achieving at broader global scales. Many key aspects shifts, they across locations, novel, difficult influence, unpredictable.3Westley Folke Homer-Dixon Vredenburg H. Loorbach D. Thompson J. Nilsson Lambin E. Sendzimir al.Tipping sustainability: emerging transformation.Ambio. 2011; 40: 762-780Crossref PubMed (453) climate change make North Africa warmer wetter, suppressing dust emissions thereby reducing nutrient deposition Amazon, where nutrients play an important role primary productivity sequestration carbon dioxide.4Barkley A.E. Prospero J.M. Mahowald N. Hamilton D.S. Popendorf K.J. Oehlert A.M. Pourmand Gatineau Panechou-Pulcherie K. Blackwelder Gaston C.J. African biomass burning substantial source phosphorus Tropical Atlantic Ocean, Southern Ocean.Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 2019; 116: 16216-16221Crossref (63) potential interconnections presents challenge science policy because requires deep influences interactions between places scales, “add up” system. This necessitates integration insights from disciplines, development tools enable govern emergence, embrace uncertainty surprise rather than efforts avoid it. Historically, spread agriculture industrial revolution, resulted interacting patchwork diverse social-ecological emerged connections geographic locations networks5Liu Mooney Hull V. Davis S.J. Gaskell Hertel Lubchenco Seto K.C. Gleick Kremen Li Systems sustainability.Science. 2015; 347: 1258832Crossref (645) (Figure 1). Even globalization has led homogeneous world ways, trade, financial markets also shaped by local ways places. migration experienced London, England, versus Dhaka, Bangladesh, differences histories, institutions, ecologies, two London’s vulnerability relatively low given residents have mobility, whereas exposed sea-level cyclones, compounded mobility. responses drivers distinct, histories colonization, migration, connect them another, ensuring dynamics entangled complex disentangle. Given historical interactions, any transition expected emerge among geographically but interacting, change. Local combine aggregation, compensation, learning, contagion 2). Aggregation happens when simply added together total. if away fossil fuels, total reduction fuels aggregate actions. actions compensatory response elsewhere. afforestation Europe, America, Japan, alongside continued demand wood products, contributed displacement deforestation tropics.8Meyfroidt Chowdhury R.R. de Bremond Ellis E.C. Erb K.-H. Filatova Garrett R.D. Grove Heinimann Kuemmerle al.Middle-range theories land change.Glob. Change. 53: 52-67Crossref (197) case, impact less sum Where shared catalyze action elsewhere, lowering costs enhancing uptake new technologies. cases, simple aggregation. Finally, contagious; Arab Spring Black Lives Matter movements started then A thus combined effects Consequently, unknowns uncertainties regarding form transitions start 21st century, solar was too expensive compete fuels. However, 2000s, German policies subsidized encouraged investment power. reasons, grew market power, accelerating process companies learning solar-power cheaply. As look back 20 years later, power grown much rapidly now competitive fuels.9Nemet G.F. How Solar Energy Became Cheap: Model Low-Carbon Innovation. Routledge, 2019Crossref (50) Although somewhat predictable, history suggests most unknowable made sense navigated arise. Scenario useful tool exploring possible, yet unknowable, investigating factors chance events influence resulting futures. The scenario-development provides opportunity collectively discuss futures, get us there, reshape those pathways. Global played analysis, planning, setting researcher, policymaker, funder assisting exploration consideration system.10Kanie Griggs Young O. Waddell Shrivastava Haas P.M. Broadgate W. Gaffney Korosi Rules goals: emergence governance strategies development.Sustain. 1745-1749Crossref (23) Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change uses predict greenhouse gas associated developments, helping clarify impacts agreements, explored contested philosophies about focus desire use well-established models means emphasized processes commonalities expense national dissimilarities, questions, challenges.11Kok M.T.J. Kok Hill Agard Carpenter S.R. Biodiversity ecosystem services IPBES novel approach scenarios.Sustain. 2017; 12: 177-181Crossref (92) Some historically model, struggle equality infectious disease, been largely overlooked scenario-modeling efforts.12Cumming G.S. Alcamo Sala Swart Bennett Zurek Are existing consistent feedbacks?.Ecosystems. 2005; 8: 143-152Crossref (39) often assumes coordinated orchestrated propel path another goal suffice change.13Stirling Emancipating transformations: controlling ‘the culturing plural radical progress.in: Schoones I. Leach Newell Politics Green Transformations. 2015: 72-85Google Ultimately, approaches scenario hide reveal. contradictory; shapes way out places, producing forces create on-the-ground Thus, tell single, globalized story which products globalization, sustainability, populism complemented understand, navigate, foster complexity real transitions. Addressing navigating emergent multiple constituent complement work. We must broaden our dominant planning forecasting include plurality greater visions, rigor depth treatment people. participation making wide range actors involved initiatives policymaking all One attempt engage multi-scale Seeds Good Anthropocenes project (https://goodanthropocenes.net/).2Bennett method pioneered project, participants develop positive basis real-world “seeds” future.14Pereira L.M. Hichert Hamann Preiser Using methods transformative spaces: Anthropocene southern Africa.Ecol. Soc. 23: 19Crossref (68) Such innovations aim address challenges, not mainstream, urban community gardening blockchain technology. begins worldviews, problematization current state world, Participants imagine were fully mature including would (synergistically conflict), positive, realistic, pluralistic. combines Mānoa amplifying “weak signals” generate scenarios15Curry Schultz Roads travelled: methods, futures.J. Futures Stud. 2009; 13: 35-60Google Three Horizons Framework considering transformational change,16Sharpe Hodgson Leicester Lyon Fazey horizons: practice transformation.Ecol. 21: 47Crossref (79) widely used typically applied environmental settings around world,17Falardeau co-producing explore agency: case study Canadian Arctic.Sustain. 205-220Crossref (22) Scholar,18Hamann Blanchard Warrington-Coetzee King Merrie al.Scenarios Africa.Futures. 2020; 188: 102526Crossref (12) primarily pluralistic, diverse, radically mainstream scenarios.19Pereira Davies K.K. Belder Ferrier Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen Kim Kuiper J.J. Okayasu Palomo M.G. H.M. al.Developing multiscale integrative nature–people using Nature Framework.People Nat. 2: 1172-1195Crossref (44) Currently Science-Policy Platform Services pluralistic cross-scale nature articulates futures.20Rosa I.M.D. Alkemade Acosta L.A. Akcakaya H.R. den Fazel Fujimori Harfoot al.Multiscale futures.Nat. Evol. 1416-1419Crossref (95) Working government, civil society, business makers who passionate Enabling inhabit values build help thinking Pathways account provide space act increase capacity future, propose do job envisioning nurturing pathways.1Envision scale challenges face diversity held constitute conflicts, opportunities, trade-offs, synergies pursuing Broadening engaged expand perspectives considered enlarge envisioned consider affect trajectories being pursued regions.2Nurture structures organizations supplant ones longer working. nurture growth deconstruct institutions impede growth. Developing research evaluate, support, array initiatives. Considering integrated key; solutions problem problems worse avoided.3Navigate together: demands ongoing knowledge co-production, reflection, action. Rather scientists figuring things policymakers acting knowledge, needs scientists, policymakers, practitioners adaptive action, reflection identify unexpected surprises, trade-offs emerge. bridge practice, complexity, support processes. hope. changing predictable surprising. Recent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), people’s excellent example. Complexity control imperfect surprises expected, describe precise oppressive fall apart successes grow. Any “global” almost certainly up don’t always align involve conflicts present Incorporating arise collective transform all.